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Search resuls for: "Gregory Brew"


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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEurasia Group's Greg Brew: Iran downplays Israel's strike and denies missile attackGregory Brew, Eurasia Group Iran and energy analyst, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss the latest on the Israel-Iran conflict, the potential for further escalation, and more.
Persons: Greg Brew, Gregory Brew Organizations: Eurasia, Eurasia Group Locations: Iran, Eurasia, Eurasia Group Iran, Israel
Guyana, a tiny South American nation home to more than 800,000 people, made big headlines in December. "What has happened is that it's been exacerbated by the discovery of oil (in Guyana)," said Dr. Terrence Blackman, founder and CEO at Guyana Business Journal. The 2015 oil discovery made Guyana the world's fastest-growing economy, recording the world's highest real GDP growth rate in 2022 and 2023. Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves, but that hasn't stopped its economy from collapsing since Maduro took power in 2013. Watch the video above to dive deep into Guyana's oil economy, its ongoing escalation with Venezuela, what the country's oil means for the U.S. and more.
Persons: Nicolás Maduro, it's, Terrence Blackman, hasn't, Maduro, Venezuela doesn't, Valerie Marcel, Gregory Brew Organizations: Guyana Business, New Producers Group, Eurasia Group, U.S Locations: Guyana, American, Venezuela, Essequibo, United States, South America
The US even reminded everyone just how influential the buck is when it effectively froze Russia out of the global financial system with sanctions last year. Becoming the issuer of the global reserve currency is about trust. The US has controlled the global reserve currency for 102 years — giving it a special status in the world economy. Still, given that the country controlling the global reserve currency holds that status of an average of 94 years, history seems to indicate it's high time for a successor. Why shouldn't the financial world resemble something closer to the mosaic of cultures, politics, and nations that exists today?
Persons: Chenzi Xu, there's, Xu, , Ron Temple, Gregory Brew, Eurasia's Brew, dollarizing, Stephen Jen, Jen, we've, Stanford's Xu, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Josh Lipsky, " Lipsky, It's, Alexander Wise, Jan Loeys, Loeys, dollarization, Wise, Lazard's Temple, isn't, Phil Rosen Organizations: Stanford, Federal, European Central Bank, People's Bank of China, Lazard, Publishing, Getty Images, International Monetary Fund, Bank of International Settlements, Eurasia Group, Sandman's, Eurizon, IMF, Atlantic Council, JPMorgan Locations: Russia, Israel, France, China, America, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India, Pakistan, Bolivia, Iraq, South Africa, Beijing
A Wednesday Dallas Fed survey illustrated a slowdown in the US oil and gas sector to start 2023. Energy executives said oil production continued to increase but at a slower rate, the survey showed. "Growth in the oil and gas sector slowed to a crawl in the first quarter, as firms' faced increasing costs." "Our respondents also expressed a worsening view of the near-term outlook for the energy sector." March's financial tumult, starting with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, rattled the energy sector this month because it shifted broader economic outlooks, according to Gregory Brew, oil analyst at Eurasia Group.
The bank crisis that started with Silicon Valley Bank last Friday continues to unfold with what feels like to-the-minute developments. First Republic Bank branch on Park Avenue in New York City. In light of the bank runs, bank failures, and bank stock volatility, those odds are now at 35%, strategists said Thursday, citing "increased near-term uncertainty" surrounding the effects of small bank stress. Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank marked the second and third largest bank failures in history, respectively, behind only Washington Mutual in 2008. She explained why you should be prepared for more interest-rate volatility as fears of a financial crisis rise.
Banking chaos is weighing on oil prices, as crude benchmarks hit their lowest levels since December 2021. Fed policy and US and European bank turmoil have darkened the global economic outlook in the last week. A week ago, the US benchmark was nearly 12% higher, and global crude traded about 11% higher. On Friday, regulators shut down Silicon Valley Bank, and two days later did the same to Signature Bank. "That, and lower oil prices/interest rates may soften the economic blow of tighter lending standards."
In December, a $60-per-barrel price cap was established to limit how much cash Moscow could pull in from oil exports. But the country's key oil product is trading far below that level, which in one sense makes the cap moot. Russian President Vladimir Putin, center, speaks to workers while visiting the Rosneft oil refinery in the Black Sea port of Tuapse, southern Russia. But to Gregory Brew, a Kissinger Visiting Scholar at Yale, rather than being a direct consequence of any sanction measure, the steep discount reflects the easing global market. It isn't about what Russia can produce or how badly it's revenue is impacted by sanctions, but instead the focus should be on what kind of market Russia will be operating in.
Russian Urals, the nation's largest crude oil export, is trading at roughly $38 a barrel, well below the $60 price cap. "Softer market conditions have made the [price] cap somewhat moot," he told Insider. But in Brew's view, the key variable behind cheap Russian oil is China. Whether China sees fuel demand come roaring back will hold the biggest sway over prices for Russian oil. "Softer market conditions have made the [price] cap somewhat moot," Brew said.
If you take anything away from today's newsletter, let it be this: As of today, Russian oil faces a new European Union embargo, as well as a price cap. EU leaders have been debating a price cap for months, but on Friday agreed to a $60-a-barrel level. Some analysts predict Russian oil exports could drop by 1 million barrels per day, or about 20% of its seaborne volume. She told me over a video call from London that, ultimately, oil markets probably won't react dramatically in either direction. What do you think is the most likely outcome of the new sanctions on Russian oil?
That day marks the beginning of a price cap on Russian oil, as well as a new European Union ban on seaborne Russian crude imports. "What it suggests is that Russian buyers are able to negotiate very favorable terms from Russian oil companies, who have to sell in order to maintain operations," Brew said. Because of that, it's possible that the West's price cap plan will end up falling flat, with the most noticeable result being customers in Asia bidding lower prices for Russian oil. But there's no guarantee European companies even want to handle any Russian oil at all. Nonetheless, oil markets are unlikely to react dramatically to the price cap, in Gallarati's view.
A price cap on Russian crude is set to begin December 5, with the aim of limiting Moscow's revenue while keeping supplies flowing. The price cap is expected to be around $65 to $70 per barrel. Some buyers in Asia have recently paused purchases of Russian oil to wait and see where the cap lands. But there's no guarantee European shipping companies would even want to handle Russian oil, regardless of a price cap, she added. Nations that have signed up for the cap, Gallarati said, are the ones that already agreed to ban Russian oil imports.
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